Politics, Public Opinion & Elections
AP–NORC Poll Finds Broad Demand for Change Before the Midterms
Registered voters express dissatisfaction with Washington and the president, while neither major party holds overwhelming public confidence.
Voters want a different direction
A new Associated Press–NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll found widespread frustration with national leadership weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. Majorities of registered voters said they wanted significant or complete change in how Washington operates. The findings reflect dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s performance on the economy, cost of living and foreign affairs. They do not automatically translate into votes for one party, because respondents also expressed limited confidence in Democrats.
The parties face different pressures
Only about one-third of voters viewed Trump favorably in the poll, while Republicans as a party were viewed unfavorably by roughly six in ten. Democrats had a modestly better image, with about four in ten expressing a favorable view, but that still falls well short of majority enthusiasm. These numbers create an opening for Democratic candidates while warning that opposition to the president does not equal broad endorsement of the party’s agenda or leadership.
Enthusiasm may affect turnout
About three-quarters of Democratic voters said casting a ballot was extremely important, compared with about six in ten Republicans, according to AP’s account. Turnout gaps can be decisive in midterms, when participation is lower and less uniform than in presidential elections. Campaigns will try to convert concern into completed ballots through organizing and advertising. Stated enthusiasm remains an intention, however, and may change as events, candidate controversies or voting obstacles emerge.
Independent voters are pivotal
Voters who identify with neither major party expressed especially strong desire for change. Their views are important in competitive districts, but independents are not a single ideological bloc. Some are fiscal conservatives, some are socially liberal and others avoid party labels while voting consistently for one side. District-level candidates must therefore address local concerns rather than assuming national dissatisfaction produces a uniform swing. Candidate quality and ballot issues can separate a local result from national polling.
How to read the survey
The poll included 1,119 adults and 925 registered voters. The reported margin of sampling error for registered voters was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Sampling error is only one source of uncertainty; wording, nonresponse and likely-turnout assumptions also matter. A poll is a snapshot of opinion during its field period, not a prediction of Election Day. Comparisons are most useful when multiple high-quality surveys using different methods show a similar direction.
What comes next
The final campaign weeks will test whether dissatisfaction becomes turnout, ticket splitting or support for third-party and independent candidates. Early voting and updated district polling will provide more concrete evidence. Voters should examine the candidates and rules in their own jurisdiction rather than treating national polling as a substitute for a ballot guide. The poll’s clearest message is that public patience is limited and both parties must persuade people that they can deliver practical change. Future surveys should be compared by field dates, samples and question wording.
Reporting note: This article draws on public records and verified reporting; material claims are attributed in the text.